Professor Sir David Hendry has received the ESRC Celebrating Impact Lifetime Achievement Award. Over five decades he has developed macroeconomic models capturing how economies work, which are now embedded in software widely used by policymakers and decision-makers.
"Professor David Hendry's contributions have exerted a great influence on the way we do practical econometric work," says Torbjørn Hægeland, Director of Research at Statistics Norway.
"In particular, the automatic model selection programme Autometrics is used extensively to guide improved empirical modelling, especially when there are structural shifts - avoiding wasted time on incorrect formulations so our economists can focus on analysis and specification."
Governments and institutions need economic models to help them use forecasts to understand how the world works when taking decisions. Based on long-term consistent research rather than a single grant or programme, Professor Hendry has devoted 45 years of research to develop economic modelling that capture the key features of a rapidly changing economic environment.
His work has influenced public policy, business, and society in both the UK and in other countries and global institutions. He has used his models to contribute to work by HM Treasury and Ofcom in the UK as well as the International Monetary Fund, and central banks including the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. He has also shown a clear commitment to training others, thus widening the impact through the provision of tailored training courses, master classes and workshops.
In collaboration with a private sector partner, Professor Hendry has successfully commercialised the software through the PcGive and OxMetrics, and supported its take-up by practitioners in the private and public sector.
"The impact has been the interaction between developing vastly more powerful methods than when I started, that have a much higher chance of finding the causal relationships that operate in the economy, and embedding these models in software that is very easy to use and is massively labour-saving," he explains.